The African economic story is a tune we keep hearing via a wide spectrum of media and at different forums across the globe. I suppose the questions that linger in the minds of many Africans and other interested parties are “Is it true that Africa, really, is the next frontier?” and “If, yes. How can I be a part of the so-called African Renaissance?” Sceptics have shot down Agenda 2063 set by the African Union and have reduced it to nothing short of a pipe dream. They mostly argue that it does not go deep enough into the nitty-gritty of how exactly the implementation will be carried out. My question then is as follows: Isn’t that, precisely, where we ought to start? The Agenda sets out a plan and vision of how the new Africa ought to look like, and that is the first place to start.
To answer the questions on the minds of many Africans, an associate of mine gave two analogies using nature and how its forces behave. He firstly argues that “nature abhors a vacuum”, that is, all the wealth in developed nations seeking good returns will find its way into economies that promise healthy returns; assuming policies permit. As far as returns go, some African countries are growing at above average returns; and have started to attract the attention of the global investment community.
Moreover, my associate goes a step further in attempting to answer the question pertaining to how one would then position themselves to be at the epicentre of the African Renaissance. While it is true that a rising tide lifts all ships, being at the heart of it all is a completely different animal; you will need a stronger force than that. A tornado will lift whatever lies in its path. That being said, the virtue of being an African or simply doing business in Africa will not suffice. In order to be lifted high within the tornado, you have to put yourself in its path.
Restoration Hardware
Our Population
Africa boasts the youngest population in the world. According to the World Bank, close to 50% of the African population estimated at 1.2 billion is under the age of 20 compared to the developed world where the figure is around 20%. That in itself is a huge opportunity, meaning we have a healthy population pyramid compared to some developed parts of the world where the population pyramids are inverted and top-heavy; thus putting enormous pressure on those economies. Countries such as Japan and parts of Scandinavia are synonymous with top-heavy and inverted population pyramids. We, on the other hand, are fertile with a future labour force like no other. If the laws of economics are anything to go by; technology, capital and labour are the key determinants of long-term economic growth. The first two factors are relatively fluid. That is, in the longer-term, technology and capital will flow into economies with more labour. We saw this in the rise of China, India and the US in its heyday. Of course this is a very simplistic view as other factors such politics and policies come into play. The understanding is that policies and politics are self-correcting in the long-term.
Our Economy
It is estimated that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Africa stands at 2.2 trillion USD. This is very low compared to other continents such Asia, North America, Europe and South America at 28 trillion, 22 trillion, 20 trillion and 4 trillion USD; respectively. Bringing it down to per capita figures, Africa still ranks last compared to other continents. It is further estimated that African intra-exports stand at around 18% of total exports, compared to intra-Europe, intra-North America and intra-East Asia at 56%, 48% and 29%, respectively. However, it is worth noting that intra-regional trade has been on the decline across the board due to globalisation.
The Conundrum
How then, do African entrepreneurs or business people such as I navigate the maze and ultimately put themselves in the path of this highly anticipated tornado, that is, the African Renaissance? Doing business in Africa brings with it a dichotomy that some business communities on other continents are faced with to a lesser extent. We have economies that exhibit promising prospects as far the head count and domestic economic size go and the-not-so-endowed economies. Take Nigeria and Lesotho for instance; both countries are African but the other is bigger in terms of population and GDP. Does that then render an entrepreneur in Lesotho doomed because of a meagre population of 2 million and GDP of 2 billion USD?
The Game Plan
Let us start with an entrepreneur based in Nigeria. This is an easier field to comprehend because the number of people and the size of the economy mean that one can scale and grow faster without having to look outside their borders. That is to say that one would have to focus on breadth rather than depth. The advantage here is you would be pushing for volumes and economies of scale; you trade margins for volumes. That on its own tilts the product offering towards more of commoditised goods and services. Mr Dangote comes to mind. His company trades in commoditised products such as cement, sugar, salt, flour, steel etc. The obvious step that follows is to then expand to neighbouring countries to leverage off your existing internal infrastructure such as distribution.
Now we turn our attention to the entrepreneur in Lesotho. This scenario would be challenging if you were to implement the strategy outlined above; that is, you would not get to hit the same revenues as the guy in Nigeria for obvious reasons. If you were to focus on the domestic market you would be capped to a 2 billion USD versus a 400 billion USD economy. The end game here would be to trade volumes for margins. You would need to focus more on niche products and services that could be sold at premium prices. An example that comes to mind is Switzerland. The country is known for the high value goods and services it exports to the rest of the world. Chocolate, premium coffee and luxury high end time pieces first come to mind when one thinks of Switzerland. An example of a product that we hope to see being viewed by the rest of the world as a premium product is Linford Vodka, which is produced by one of our portfolio companies at Grand Duke Investments (Grand Duke). Lesotho is known for its water and Linford Vodka is a beneficiation play on Lesotho water. However, the product would then need to be marketed to the rest of the world, mainly the developed world as a niche product. We have to look beyond the borders of Lesotho for a stable market. Another example is the Lesotho Trout that is exported to Japan and South Africa by a local fishery as a premium product.
Our analysis here does not preclude technology as a viable avenue for entrepreneurs. The beauty about technology is its borderless nature.
Another portfolio company at Grand Duke is IFOUNDiT, which offers BrandbookTM :a loyalty smart device application that is neither store nor country-specific. The play here is to have a scalable technological solution for businesses and brands that would want to understand African purchasing habits at a deeper level. The application now operates seamlessly in South Africa and Lesotho, with plans to expand to other African countries.
Another portfolio company at Grand Duke is IFOUNDiT, which offers BrandbookTM :a loyalty smart device application that is neither store nor country-specific. The play here is to have a scalable technological solution for businesses and brands that would want to understand African purchasing habits at a deeper level. The application now operates seamlessly in South Africa and Lesotho, with plans to expand to other African countries.
The opportunities for doing business in Africa are plenty and success would depend purely on positioning. Dealing in commoditised products requires huge volumes for lower margins, while dealing in niche products requires fewer volumes for high margins. Smaller economy entrepreneurs will almost invariably have to look outside their borders while bigger economy entrepreneurs will be looking within their borders. Commoditised products are best monetised when meeting local demand and not having to compete with other more efficient global players. Technology always has a way of turning the business rules of engagement upside down. Borderless business models in technology may not depend on domestic GDP and population metrics as scalability can be achieved in a short space of time with minimal resources. Niche products are usually linked to depth and understanding of what makes the product premium and factors such as geographical location, climate and labour specialisation in high value products can render the name of a country a trademark in itself if the strategy is executed well.
Young African entrepreneurs are gleaming with hope and our outlook on the future is not unfounded. The African Renaissance is well within our reach and like debris that will be lifted high up in the eye of a tornado; we work endlessly to position ourselves in its path.
Mohau is a Managing Director at Grand Duke Investments Ltd. Grand Duke Investments Ltd is a specialised finance firm that deals with project financing and deal structuring with a strong focus on Venture Capital and Transaction Advisory. Before founding Grand Duke Investments he worked as a Proprietary Trader for a US-Based trading firm where he traded shares on the NYSE, NASDAQ and other exchanges. He holds a BComm Honours degree in Investment Management from the University of Pretoria. He has passed Level 2 of the Chartered Financial Analyst programme.